Tale of Two Cities

What are the lessons learned from Tuesday's primary:

1. Money + endorsement = victory
2. There is the East End and the rest of the city
3. Post Gazette endorsements don't mean a lot to the voters
4. Bar Association Ratings don't mean a lot to voters

Luke had lot's of money and the Party machine working for him and he rolled to an easy victory. Dowd got good press, the Post-Gazette endorsement and it didn't matter. Robinson also got a lot of good publicity but combined, Dowd and Robinson couldn't come close to Luke.

In the Judicial race one candidate had the grand slam: Bar Association highest recommendation, the Democratic endorsement, Post-Gazette endorsement and money/tv ads. That was Joe Williams who led the Democratic ticket. Don Walko was second. He had the Party endorsement and a lot of name recognition from his time in state politics. He did not get a good recommendation from the bar association as he has limited experience practicing law. He also didn't seem to spend nearly as much as other candidates on ads. Susan Evashavik Dilucente had the Party endorsement, a good but not excellent recommendation from the bar, the Post-Gazette endorsement and she spent a lot of money on ads. She came in just a hair behind Walko.

The fourth slot was the only one that went to an unendorsed candidate, Phil Ignelzi. He was highly recommended by the bar, endorsed by both papers and spent the most money. That money bought him a lot of votes. Two other candidates who were unendorsed were highly recommended by the Bar and endorsed by the paper, Alex Bicket and Hugh McGough. Ignelzi outpaced Bicket by 11,000 votes and McGough by 20,000. Bicket had ads on TV, but did not spend nearly as much as Ignelzi. McGough focused on a grass roots campaign and did not spend money on TV advertising.

The fifth slot went to Klein who was endorsed by the party, but did not garner a Highly Recommended rating and did not get the Post-Gazette endorsement. He was only about 1000 votes behind Ignelzi and 10,000 votes ahead of the 6th place finisher, Bicket. Bicket did get the Republican nomination so we will see if the endorsement from the paper and a Highly Recommended rating along with TV ads and a high profile spokesperson: Rocky Bleier can be enough to win in the Fall. It makes sense that he could pick up the McGough voters as he will not be running in the fall. If so he would have enough support to win one of the five seats. On the other hand, it stands to reason that Klein may get some of the Marmo votes, as Marmo was the only endorsed candidate to lose. Marmo finished in seventh place, about 2000 votes behind Bicket.

Although I have not studied the East End numbers, my sense is that Dowd beat Ravenstahl in 14 and 7. McGough also had very strong support in this part of the city. The 14th Ward is the most populated and generally has the best voter turnout, but this election is a reminder that popularity in this monied area of the city alone is not enough to win, or even come close, in a city or county wide election. Voters in these areas have a totally different philosophy than other sections of the city. Perhaps we are seeing a small shift with the more progressive City Council candidates winning in the Hill and the South Hills, but this didn't make a dent in the mayoral race.

Mayoral Ramblings - Hillary's Votes, Luke's Money, Patrick's Face

I've heard Councilman Dowd speak several times and I can now never look at him the same way. He has a classic campaign poster with a very serious looking picture of him: a clean cut man, clean shaven with a jutting jaw looking for a political fight. I've heard his speech several times in which he mentioned that he used to have very long hair. Now every time I look at him instead of seeing the Gary Hart-like clean cut dark suited candidate, I visualize someone rushing for the stage at a festival seating Dead show.

At first I didn't know what to make out of Dowd. After several conversations with him I have come to these conclusions:

* He loves talking to people
* He is comfortable speaking to a group
* He is confident and not afraid of a fight
* Chameleon-like, he adapts to the audience
* He genuinely believes what is going on in the Mayor's office is just plain wrong
* He is very bright

These are enough attributes to make him the best choice for mayor. Unfortunately he doesn't have much of a chance. At the recent Dowd gathering I spoke with some of his supporters. One woman who was practically fawning over Dowd mentioned that she was a strong supporter of Hillary. I mentioned to her that Hillary is the reason that Dowd has little chance of prevailing next week. The reason is money. Dowd doesn't have much and Ravenstahl has a lot. He has a lot because Hillary and Bill cut a deal with him. Ravenstahl agreed to give Clinton his support in return for Bill agreeing to do a fundraiser for Luke. Bill honored the deal and the Ravenstahl campaign was $1 million dollars richer. Dowd just can't compete with that type of advertising budget. Luke is all over the TV and Dowd can't get on the air.

There was discussion about the picture in the PG of Dowd in front of the Pat Ford Memorial Electronic Billboard. Dowd said the picture down right frightened his children. I think it summed up his feelings about one of the stronger examples of pay to play and Luke getting caught with his hand in the cookie jar. Dowd was disgusted. It was grandstanding a bit, but it was also genuine. He really worked himself into a frenzy and it appeared that his face was going to fall off.

Luke and his people are using some rather intimidating tactics. I have spoken to several local business people. They will not show up to any political fund raisers for anyone other than Luke. Luke's people check up on everyone. If you want the help of Grant Street and you show up to a political event that the administration doesn't like, they know it and let you know that they aren't happy. We have a 28 year old mayor who is about to be re-elected, and is developing an old fashioned Chicago style machine. We would be better off with Chicago style deep dish pizza. Although artery clogging I think it would be better for our health, at least if you believe in democracy. Luke's machine could begin to roll like a freight train. He could be mayor for another 40 years. It is starting to look like an era of intimidating politics in Pittsburgh.

I admire Carmen Robinson and Dowd for understanding that the democratic political system is important. Those in power must be challenged so that we have a check and balance. Although, perhaps, neither has provided a clear plan of how they are going to save the city, they have opened the public's eyes to things that don't look right. They are both intelligent, articulate and strong voices who seem more credible than Luke. It probably isn't going to make a difference on Tuesday, but I do think if Luke continues to take a "Luke first" approach people are going to remember the voices of Dowd and Robinson four years from now. They have both earned my respect and appreciation for making a challenge and I expect to reward one of them with my vote on Tuesday. I have not heard enough from Robinson. I think she is short on experience, so I think that I will be going with Dowd. Even if he loses, I think he and Robinson have at least caused Ravenstahl to think about his actions. He is going to be held accountable. The more votes that go to Dowd and/or Robinson the louder that message will be.

Unfortunately it doesn't seem that this election is exciting many people. After the historic, impassioned election in November I think that local voters are having a Presidential hangover and are sleepwalking through these primaries. I expect voter turnout to be very low. Normally you would think that could provide a perfect storm for an underdog, but certainly Bill and Hillary's $1,000,000.00 will be spent making sure Luke's people know the difference between his posters at the polls and his picture on the garbage cans. A million dollars pays for a lot of election day campaign workers who will call voters and drivers who will make sure they get to the polls.